FORECAST

Surfline Official Forecast

Updated: Monday, October 15th

BRIEF OVERVIEW: Building SW swell prevails Tuesday and continues Wednesday (easing in the afternoon) with fairly solid surf at Canggu. Moderate trades on Tuesday ease on Wednesday.

**Note: Surf sizes below are for the more exposed break, Canggu. Keramas will generally be smaller. **

TUESDAY 16th
SWELL/SURF: Building trend of mid and longer period SW swell with 5-7-8′ faces and some larger sets in the late afternoon/evening up to 10′ on the face.
WIND/WEATHER: ESE trades in the morning shifting SE/SSE 9-13kts in the afternoon.

WEDNESDAY 17th
SWELL/SURF: SW swell continues with 5-8 occ. 10′+ faces and even a few larger max sets.
WIND/WEATHER: ESE trades in the morning shifting SE/SSE 8-12kts in the afternoon.

SWELL/WEATHER SUMMARY
**Note: Surf sizes below are for the more exposed break, Canggu. Keramas will generally be smaller. **

A building trend of SW swell prevails on Tuesday thanks to storm activity in the western and central Indian Ocean several days ago. We’ll see a separate, mid period SW swell in the morning with the longer period SW swell building in the afternoon. Look for overhead surf in the morning to grow to solidly overhead in the afternoon at Canggu. Wednesday morning will continue to see solid surf, with an easing trend in the afternoon.

The breezy trades we’ve seen the past couple days will ease through mid week. Direction will be more ESE in the morning and shift SE in the afternoon

Next Update: Tuesday afternoon, October 16th (if necessary)

Forecast Blog: http://www.surfline.com/surf-science/oakley-junior-pro-bali—official-forecast—forecaster-blog_77156/


Updated: Friday, October 12th

BRIEF OVERVIEW: Decreasing, but still decent size, SSW leftovers prevail on Saturday. Another series of SW swells will build in for the 15th-17th.

**Note: Surf sizes below are for the more exposed break, Canggu. Keramas will generally be smaller. **

SATURDAY 13th
SWELL/SURF: Smaller SSW swell leftovers with 5-7 occ. 8′ faces in the morning and fading through the day.
WIND/WEATHER: Light ESE trades in the morning, building from the SSE 9-12kts in the afternoon.

SUNDAY 14th
SWELL/SURF: Smaller SSW swell leftovers with 3-5 occ. 6′ faces in the morning and rebuilding slightly through the day with sets to a foot or two overhead through the afternoon. Stay tuned.
WIND/WEATHER: ESE trades in the morning 7-10kts, building from the SSE 10-15kts in the afternoon.

MONDAY 15th
SWELL/SURF: Continued gradual building trend with 4-6-7′ faces and some larger sets. Stay tuned.
WIND/WEATHER: ESE trades in the morning 7-11kts, building from the SSE 10-14kts+ in the afternoon.

TUESDAY 16th
SWELL/SURF: Continued building trend with 5-7-8′ faces and some larger sets in the late afternoon/evening. Stay tuned.
WIND/WEATHER: ESE trades in the morning 5-10kts, building from the SSE 9-12kts in the afternoon.

WEDNESDAY 17th
SWELL/SURF: SW swell fills in further with 6-8-10′ faces and some possib le larger waves. Stay tuned.
WIND/WEATHER: ESE trades in the morning 5-10kts, building from the SSE 9-11kts in the afternoon.

SWELL/WEATHER SUMMARY
**Note: Surf sizes below are for the more exposed break, Canggu. Keramas will generally be smaller. **

Decreasing but still good size SSW swell leftovers prevail on Saturday and a decreasing trend continues into Sunday morning.

Going further out, we’re watching for another series of SW swells on track for the final few days of the waiting period, from a complex low recently tracking eastward across southern Indian Ocean. We’ll see a fun to medium size SW swell gradually rebuild Sunday and Monday, with larger and fairly solid swell for Tuesday later afternoon/evening and especially Wednesday. Stay tuned.

SE trades will rebuild over the weekend and will be fairly breezy in the afternoons Sunday and Monday. Easing trades take over for the last couple days of the event waiting period. Stay tuned.

Next Update: Saturday afternoon, October 13th

Forecast Blog: http://www.surfline.com/surf-science/oakley-junior-pro-bali—official-forecast—forecaster-blog_77156/


Updated: Thursday, October 11th

BRIEF OVERVIEW: Decreasing, but still fairly solid, SSW leftovers prevail on Friday with a continued fading trend into the weekend. Another series of SW swells will build in for the 15th-17th.

**Note: Surf sizes below are for the more exposed break, Canggu. Keramas will generally be smaller. **

FRIDAY 12th
SWELL/SURF: Fading SW swell with 6-8-10′ faces and occasional larger sets in the morning.
WIND/WEATHER: Light/variable ESE trades in the morning, building from the SSE 8-10kts in the afternoon.

SATURDAY 13th
SWELL/SURF: Smaller SSW swell leftovers with 5-7 occ. 8′ faces in the morning and fading through the day.
WIND/WEATHER: ESE trades in the morning, building from the SSE 9-12kts in the afternoon.

SUNDAY 14th
SWELL/SURF: Smaller SSW swell leftovers with 3-5 occ. 6′ faces in the morning and rebuilding slightly through the day with sets to a foot or two overhead through the afternoon. Stay tuned.
WIND/WEATHER: ESE trades in the morning 7-10kts, building from the SSE 10-15kts in the afternoon.

MONDAY 15th
SWELL/SURF: Continued gradual building trend with 4-6-7′ faces and some larger sets. Stay tuned.
WIND/WEATHER: ESE trades in the morning 7-11kts, building from the SSE 10-14kts+ in the afternoon.

TUESDAY 16th
SWELL/SURF: Continued building trend with 6-10′ faces and some larger sets. Stay tuned.
WIND/WEATHER: ESE trades in the morning 5-10kts, building from the SSE 9-12kts+ in the afternoon.

SWELL/WEATHER SUMMARY
**Note: Surf sizes below are for the more exposed break, Canggu. Keramas will generally be smaller. **

Decreasing, albeit solid, surf takes over Friday with still good size leftovers on Saturday and a continued decreasing trend into Sunday morning.

Going further out, we’re watching for another series of SW swells on track for the final few days of the waiting period, from a complex low tracking eastward across southern indian Ocean. If this storm behaves as forecast in the next day or so we’ll see a fun to medium size SW swell gradually rebuild Sunday and Monday, with larger and fairly solid swell for Tuesday and into Wednesday. Stay tuned.

SE trades will gradually rebuild on Friday and then will be fairly breezy later this weekend and early next week. Easing trades take over for the last couple days of the event waiting period. Stay tuned.

Next Update: Friday afternoon, October 12th

Forecast Blog: http://www.surfline.com/surf-science/oakley-junior-pro-bali—official-forecast—forecaster-blog_77156/


Updated: Wednesday, October 10th

BRIEF OVERVIEW: SSW swell will build through the day and top out on Thursday with solid surf. Decreasing, but still fairly solid, leftovers prevail on Friday with a continued fading trend into the weekend. Another strong SW swell is lining up for the 15th-17th.

**Note: Surf sizes below are for the more exposed break, Canggu. Keramas will generally be smaller. **

THURSDAY 11th
SWELL/SURF: Solid SSW swell continues through the day with 8-12’+ faces and larger waves maxing at triple overhead (especially on the groms). Keramas also picking up this swell with overhead waves and favorable wind and tide conditions, especially in the morning.
WIND/WEATHER: Light west wind early, with SSW to South wind in the afternoon 5-10kts.

FRIDAY 12th
SWELL/SURF: Fading SW swell with 6-8-10′ faces and occasional larger sets in the morning.
WIND/WEATHER: Light ESE trades in the morning, building from the SSE 8-10kts in the afternoon.

SATURDAY 13th
SWELL/SURF: Smaller SSW swell leftovers with 5-7-8′ faces in the morning and fading through the day.
WIND/WEATHER: ESE trades in the morning, building from the SSE 9-13kts in the afternoon.

SUNDAY 14th
SWELL/SURF: Smaller SSW swell leftovers with 4-6′ faces in the morning and possibly rebuilding through the day with sets to a couple feet overhead through the afternoon. Stay tuned.
WIND/WEATHER: ESE trades in the morning 7-10kts, building from the SSE 10-14kts in the afternoon.

MONDAY 15th
SWELL/SURF: Continued gradual building trend with 4-7′ faces and some larger sets. Stay tuned.
WIND/WEATHER: ESE trades in the morning 7-11kts, building from the SSE 10-14kts+ in the afternoon.

SWELL/WEATHER SUMMARY
**Note: Surf sizes below are for the more exposed break, Canggu. Keramas will generally be smaller. **

SSW swell will fill in further and be strongest on Thursday. We don’t expect this swell to be super consistent and we’ll likely have some lulls between the really solid sets, but do look for well overhead waves throughout the day on Thursday, with the larger sets pushing up to double to triple overhead (especially on the groms). Also note that Keramas will see good size with the southerly angled swell and wind and tides will both be favorable Thursday morning.

Decreasing surf takes over Friday with still good size leftovers on Saturday and a continued decreasing trend into Sunday morning.

Going further out, we’re watching for another series of SW swells on track for the final few days of the waiting period, from a complex low tracking eastward across southern indian Ocean right now. If this storm behaves as forecast in the next couple days we’ll see a medium size SW swell gradually rebuild Sunday and Monday, with larger swell for Tuesday and into Wednesday. Stay tuned.

The pressure gradient will be weak near Bali again on Thursday and morning wind will be light out of the West (see above for more specific details). SE trades are expected to kick back in for the end of the week and build for the weekend and continue through early next week. Stay tuned.

Next Update: Thursday afternoon, October 11th

Forecast Blog: http://www.surfline.com/surf-science/oakley-junior-pro-bali—official-forecast—forecaster-blog_77156/

The above image displays the 7-day swell forecast for Canguu.


Updated: Tuesday, October 9th

BRIEF OVERVIEW: SSW swell will build through the day and top out on Thursday with solid surf. Decreasing, but still fairly solid, leftovers prevail on Friday with a continued fading trend into the weekend. Another strong SW swell is lining up for the 15th-17th.

**Note: Surf sizes below are for the more exposed break, Canggu. Keramas will generally be smaller. **

WEDNESDAY 10th
SWELL/SURF: SSW swell build further with 5-8’ faces in the AM. Stronger, long period SSW swell in the PM with larger sets showing up to 10′ faces.
WIND/WEATHER: Light WSW wind early, becoming SW to SSW in the afternoon 6-10kts.

THURSDAY 11th
SWELL/SURF: Solid SSW swell continues through the day with 8-12’+ faces and larger waves maxing at triple overhead (especially on the groms). Keramas also picking up this swell with overhead waves and favorable conditions in the morning.
WIND/WEATHER: Light west wind early, with SSW to South wind in the afternoon 5-10kts.

FRIDAY 12th
SWELL/SURF: Fading SW swell with 6-8-10′ faces and occasional larger sets in the morning.
WIND/WEATHER: Light ESE trades in the morning, building from the SSE 9-11kts in the afternoon.

SATURDAY 13th
SWELL/SURF: Smaller SSW swell leftovers with 5-7-8′ faces in the morning and fading through the day.
WIND/WEATHER: ESE trades in the morning, building from the SSE 9-13kts in the afternoon.

SUNDAY 14th
SWELL/SURF: Smaller SSW swell leftovers with 4-6′ faces in the morning and possibly rebuilding through the day. Stay tuned.
WIND/WEATHER: ESE trades in the morning, building from the SSE 10-13kts in the afternoon.

SWELL/WEATHER SUMMARY
**Note: Surf sizes below are for the more exposed break, Canggu. Keramas will generally be smaller. **

A stronger and more southerly angled SSW swell will be building over the afternoon and evening hours on Wednesday and will be strongest on Thursday. This is from a storm that has recently plowed across theIndian Ocean and is now passing to the south of Australia. While the wind and swell this storm produced was better aimed at Southwestern Australia, the large fetch produced 40-45kt wind (and isolated areas of satellite confirmed 50kt wind) and seas of 30-40′, which will spread to Bali via angular spreading.

We don’t expect this swell to be super consistent and we’ll likely have some lulls between the really solid sets, but do look for well overhead waves throughout the day on Thursday, with the larger sets pushing up to double to triple overhead (especially on the groms). Also note that Keramas will see more size with the southerly angled swell and wind and tides will both be favorable Thursday morning.

Decreasing surf takes over Friday with still good size leftovers on Saturday and a continued decreasing trend into Sunday morning.

Going further out, we’re watching for another strong SW swell for the 15th-17th time frame (long period forerunners possibly building Sunday PM). Stay tuned.

The pressure gradient will be weak near Bali Wed-Thur and morning wind will be light out of the WSW to West (see above for more specific details). SE trades are expected to kick back in for the end of the week and build for the weekend. Stay tuned.

Next Update: Wednesday afternoon, October 10th

Forecast Blog: http://www.surfline.com/surf-science/oakley-junior-pro-bali—official-forecast—forecaster-blog_77156/


Updated: Monday, October 8th

BRIEF OVERVIEW: Fun size SSW swell will gradually rebuild through the day on Tuesday and fills in further for medium size surf Wednesday morning. A larger and solid SSW swell builds later Wednesday afternoon and is strongest on Thursday, before fading into the weekend. Another strong SW swell is lining up for the 15th-16th.

**Note: Surf sizes below are for the more exposed break, Canggu. Keramas will generally be smaller. **

TUESDAY 9th
SWELL/SURF: Mid and longer period SSW swell mix rebuilds slowly through the day. Fun in the morning with 3-4 occ. 5’ faces and rebuilding to 4-6’ faces over the afternoon/evening.
WIND/WEATHER: Light/variable SE wind in the early morning, becoming South wind in the afternoon 5-10kts.

WEDNESDAY 10th
SWELL/SURF: SSW swell build further with 5-8’ faces in the AM. Stronger, long period SSW swell in the PM with larger sets showing up to 10′ faces.
WIND/WEATHER: Light/variable to light WSW wind early, becoming light southerly in the afternoon 4-8kts.

THURSDAY 11th
SWELL/SURF: Solid SSW swell continues through the day with 8-12’+ faces and larger waves maxing near triple overhead (especially on the groms). Keramas also picking up this swell with overhead waves and favorable conditions (especially in the morning).
WIND/WEATHER: Light/variable wind early, becoming southerly in the afternoon 7-11kts.

FRIDAY 12th
SWELL/SURF: Fading SW swell with 6-8-10′ faces and occasional larger sets in the morning.
WIND/WEATHER: Light ESE trades in the morning, building from the SSE 9-12kts in the afternoon.

SATURDAY 13th
SWELL/SURF: Smaller SSW swell leftovers with 5-7-8′ faces in the morning and fading through the day.
WIND/WEATHER: Light ESE trades in the morning, building from the SSE 9-12kts in the afternoon.

SWELL/WEATHER SUMMARY
**Note: Surf sizes below are for the more exposed break, Canggu. Keramas will generally be smaller. **

Small, but fun size and contestable surf will prevail on Tuesday, with a gradual rebuilding trend through the day. Look for head high and slightly larger sets to develop through the day and especially over the afternoon. The swell will fill in further on Wednesday morning and offer surf in the head hight to a couple feet overhead range with larger sets at times.

A stronger and more southerly angled SSW swell will be building over the afternoon and evening hours on Wednesday and will be strongest on Thursday. This is from a storm that has recently plowed across theIndian Ocean and is now located to the south of Western Australia. While the wind and swell this storm produced is better aimed at Southwestern Australia, the large fetch produced 40-45kt wind (and isolated areas of satellite confirmed 50kt wind) and seas of 30-40′, which will spread to Bali via angular spreading.

We don’t expect this swell to be super consistent and well likely ave some lulls between the really solid sets, but do look for well overhead waves throughout the day on Thursday, with the larger sets pushing up to double to triple overhead (especially on the groms). Also note that Keramas will see more size with the southerly angled swell and wind and tides will both be favorable Wednesday and Thursday mornings.

Decreasing surf takes over Friday with still good size leftovers on Saturday and a continued decreasing trend into Sunday morning.

Going further out, we’re watching for another strong SW swell for Mon/Tue the 15th-16th (long period forerunners possibly building Sunday PM). Stay tuned.

The pressure gradient will be weak near Bali Tue-Thur and morning wind will be light and of varying directions in the mornings (see above for more specific details). Southerly wind builds in the afternoon; lightest Tue/Wed and then increasing a bit on Thursday. Stronger SE trades are expected to kick back in for the end of the week and the weekend. Stay tuned.

Next Update: Tuesday afternoon, October 9th

Forecast Blog: http://www.surfline.com/surf-science/oakley-junior-pro-bali—official-forecast—forecaster-blog_77156/


Updated: Saturday, October 6th

BRIEF OVERVIEW: The SW swell we saw today will fade further on Sunday and Monday. We’ll see a medium size south-southwest swell mix move in later Tue afternoon and Wednesday morning, with a strong SSW swell Wednesday afternoon through Friday (peaking Thur). More medium size south-southwest swell is on track for the 14th-16th time frame.

**Note: Surf sizes below are for the more exposed break, Canggu. Keramas will generally be smaller. **

SUNDAY 7th
SWELL/SURF: Smaller SW swell leftovers in the 3-5-6’ range on the face when the sets show.
WIND/WEATHER: Light SE trades in the morning, building 8-12kts+ in the afternoon.

MONDAY 8th
SWELL/SURF: Small SW swell leftovers with 3-5’ faces
WIND/WEATHER: Light SE trades in the morning, building 8-12kts in the afternoon.

TUESDAY 9th
SWELL/SURF: Mid and longer period SSW swell mix rebuilds. Fun in the morning with 3-5’ faces and rebuilding to 4-6’+ faces over the afternoon/evening.
WIND/WEATHER: Light/variable SE wind in the early morning, becoming South wind in the afternoon 5-9kts.

WEDNESDAY 10th
SWELL/SURF: SW swell build further with 5-8’ faces in the AM. Possible rapid build of stronger, long period SSW swell in the PM. Stay tuned.
WIND/WEATHER: Light/variable wind early, becoming light southerly in the afternoon 4-8kts.

THURSDAY 11th
SWELL/SURF: Solid SSW swell continues through the day with 8-12’+ faces and very likely some larger waves if the storm behaves as forecast
WIND/WEATHER: Light/variable wind early, becoming light southerly in the afternoon 4-7kts.

SWELL/WEATHER SUMMARY
**Note: Surf sizes below are for the more exposed break, Canggu. Keramas will generally be smaller. **

The current southwest swell (210-230) will fade further on Sunday and through Monday.

We have a couple swells on the horizon that will affect the event for the middle through second half of next week. The first swell event will actually be a mix of mid and longer period SSW swells (195-220) which will build in Tuesday afternoon/evening and be strongest on Wednesday. This will be a fun to medium size swell, with head high to a couple feet overhead surf at Canggu later Tuesday afternoon/evening and especially Wednesday morning.

Going further out, we’re watching for a much larger SSW swell (200-220) to peak on Thursday, although we could see a rapid build Wednesday afternoon, if the storm behaves as forecast in in the next couple days. If the storm behaves as forecast, Canguu will see very solidly well overhead++ waves with Keramas a few notches below that (but still well overhead). Those waves will then back down Friday and into the following weekend. Staytuned for further details in the next couple days.

Beyond that, another medium size SW swell is on track for the 14th-16th time frame, if a succession of longer range storms behave as forecast, with easing surf for the last day of the waiting period.

Light to moderate SE’erly trades prevail over the weekend and into the early part of next week, strongest in the afternoons. The pressure gradient will weaken near Bali Tue-Thur of next week and lighter and more variable wind will prevail.Stay tuned.

Next Update: Monday afternoon, October 8th

Forecast Blog: http://www.surfline.com/surf-science/oakley-junior-pro-bali—official-forecast—forecaster-blog_77156/


Updated: Friday, October 5th

BRIEF OVERVIEW: The event waiting period will start off in leftover southwest swell that peaked on Thursday, although surf will still be medium size at Canggu. Decreasing and smaller, fun size leftovers take overSun/Mon. We’ll see a medium size south-southwest swell mix move in later Tue the 9th, with a strong SSW swell Wednesday afternoon through Friday (peaking Thur). More medium size south-southwest swell is on track for the 14th-16th time frame.

**Note: Surf sizes below are for the more exposed break, Canggu. Keramas will generally be smaller. **

SATURDAY 6th
SWELL/SURF: Good size leftovers from the SW swell that peaked earlier in the weak with 5-7’+ faces and a few leftover larger waves still a few feet overhead.
WIND/WEATHER: Light/variable SE wind in the early morning, with SE trades building 8-11kts in the afternoon.

SUNDAY 7th
SWELL/SURF: Smaller SW swell leftovers in the 3-5-6’ range on the face when the sets show.
WIND/WEATHER: Light SE trades in the morning, building 8-12kts in the afternoon.

MONDAY 8th
SWELL/SURF: SW swell leftovers with 3-5’ faces
WIND/WEATHER: Light SE trades in the morning, building 8-12kts in the afternoon.

TUESDAY 9th
SWELL/SURF: Mid and longer period SSW swell mix rebuilds with 4-6’ faces.
WIND/WEATHER: Light/variable SE wind in the early morning, becoming South wind in the afternoon 5-9kts.

WEDNESDAY 10th
SWELL/SURF: SW swell build further with 5-8’ faces in the AM. Possible rapid build of stronger, long period SSW swell in the PM. Stay tuned.
WIND/WEATHER: Light/variable wind early, becoming light southerly in the afternoon 4-8kts.

SWELL/WEATHER SUMMARY
**Note: Surf sizes below are for the more exposed break, Canggu. Keramas will generally be smaller. **

The good size southwest swell (210-230) that peaked on Thursday will wind down today (Fri) and through the weekend. Saturday will see still fairly solid leftovers from this southwest swell in the head high to a couple feet+ overhead range at Canggu and some larger sets in the morning (note that Keramas will be quite a bit smaller with the more westerly swell direction). The swell and surf will continue to fade through the weekend, with fun size leftovers on Sunday, and even smaller waves by Monday.

Going further out, we have a few swells on the horizon that will affect the event for the middle through second half of next week. The first swell event will actually be a mix of mid and longer period SSW swells (195-220) which will build in Tuesday afternoon/evening and be strongest on Wednesday. This will be a medium size swell, if the storms continue to behave as forecast over the next 24 hours, with head high to a couple feet overhead surf at Canggu Tuesday afternoon/evening and Wednesday morning. Stay tuned, we’ll continue to track this swell and keep you posted.

Going further out, forecast charts and models continue to indicate a larger SSW swell (200-220) will move in over Wednesday afternoon and be strongest Thursday, if the storm behaves as forecast in in the next 2-3 days. If the storm behaves as forecast, Canguu will see very solidly overhead waves with Keramas a few notches below that (but still overhead). Those waves will then fback down Friday and into the following weekend. Stay tuned for further details in the next few days.

Beyond that, another medium size SW swell is on track for the 14th-16th time frame, if a succession of longer range storms behave as forecast, with easing surf for the last day of the waiting period.

Light to moderate SE’erly trades prevail over the weekend and into the early part of next week, strongest in the afternoons. The pressure gradient will weaken near Bali Tue-Thur of next week and lighter and more variable wind will prevail.Stay tuned.

Next Update by: Saturday afternoon, October 6th

Forecast Blog: http://www.surfline.com/surf-science/oakley-junior-pro-bali—official-forecast—forecaster-blog_77156/


Updated: Thursday, October 4th

BRIEF OVERVIEW: The event waiting period will start off in leftover southwest swell that had peaked earlier in the week, although surfwill still be medium size at Canggu. Decreasing and smaller leftovers take over Sun/Mon. We’ll see a medium size south-southwest swell mix move in later Tue and Wed the 9th-10th, with a larger south-southwest swell for the 11th-12th. More south-southwest swell is on track for the 14th.

**Note: Surf size will be focused on the more exposed break, Canggu. Keramas will generally be smaller. **

SATURDAY 6th
SWELL/SURF: Good size leftovers from the SW swell that peaked earlier in the weak with 5-7’+ faces and a few leftover larger waves.
WIND/WEATHER: Light/variable SE wind in the early morning, with SE trades building 8-11kts in the afternoon.

SUNDAY 7th
SWELL/SURF: Smaller SW swell leftovers in the 3-5-6’ range on the face when the sets show.
WIND/WEATHER: Light SE trades in the morning, building 8-12kts in the afternoon.

MONDAY 8th
SWELL/SURF: SW swell leftovers with 3-4-5’ faces
WIND/WEATHER: Light SE trades in the morning, building 8-12kts in the afternoon.

TUESDAY 9th
SWELL/SURF: Mid and longer period SSW swell mix rebuilds with 4-6’ faces.
WIND/WEATHER: Light/variable SE wind in the early morning, becoming South wind in the afternoon 5-9kts.

WEDNESDAY 10th
SWELL/SURF: SW swell eases further with 5-8’ faces.
WIND/WEATHER: Light/variable wind early, becoming light southerly in the afternoon 4-8kts.

SWELL/WEATHER SUMMARY
**Note: Surf size will be focused on the more exposed break, Canggu. Keramas will generally be smaller. **

The good size southwest swell (210-230) that the region is seeing today will wind down through the end of the work week and the weekend. Saturday will see still fairly solid leftovers from this southwest swell in the head high to a couple feet+ overhead range at Canggu and some larger sets in the morning (note that Keramas will be quite a bit smaller with the more westerly swell direction). The swell and surf will continue to fade through the weekend, with fun sizeleftovers on Sunday, and even smaller waves by Monday.

Going further out, we have a few swells on the horizon that will affect the comp for the middle to second half of next week. The first swell event will actually be a mix of mid and longer period SSW swells (195-220) which, if the storms behave as forecast in the next couple days, will build in Tuesday afternoon/evening and be strongest on Wednesday. This will be a medium size swell, if the storms behave as forecast, with head high to a couple feet overhead surf at CangguTuesday afternoon and Wednesday morning. Stay tuned, we’ll have more refined details on this in our next couple updates as we see the storms evolve.

Going further out, forecast charts and models indicate a larger SSW swell (200-220) will move in over Wednesday afternoon and be strongest Thursday, if the storm behaves as forecast in the next couple days. It still appears that the longrange projections on our LOLA swell model are pretty ‘hot’ and will likely come down over the next couple days. This swell still looks decent size, however, and would produce very well overhead waves at Canguu with Keramas a few notches below that. Those waves will then fade Friday and into the following weekend. Stay tuned for further details in the next few days.

Beyond that, another medium size SW swell is on track for the 14th-15th time frame, with fading surf for the final couple days of the waiting period.

Light to moderate SE’erly trades prevail over the weekend and into the early part of next week, strongest in the afternoons. The pressure gradient will weaken near Bali Tue-Thur of next week and lighter and more variable wind will prevail.Stay tuned.

Next Update: Friday afternoon, October 4th

Forecaster Blog: http://www.surfline.com/surf-science/oakley-junior-pro-bali—official-forecast—forecaster-blog_77156/

Figure 1: The below image displays the succession of SW to SSW swells lining up for Bali over the next week.


Updated: Wednesday, October 3rd

BRIEF OVERVIEW: The event waiting period will start off in leftover southwest swell that had peaked earlier in the week, although surf will still be medium size at Canggu. Decreasing and smaller surf takes over Sun/Mon. We’ll see a medium size south-southwest swell mix move in later Tue and Wed the 9th-10th, with a larger and potentially solid south-southwest swell for the 11th-12th.

SWELL/WEATHER SUMMARY
**Note: Swell and surf size will be focused on the more exposed break, Canggu. Keramas will generally be smaller and, at times, significantly smaller. **

A good size southwest swell (210-230) that is filling in this afternoon (Wed) and will be strongest into Thursday will wind down through the end of the work week and the weekend. Saturday will see still fairly solid leftovers from this southwest swell in the head high to a couple feet+ overhead range at Canggu (note that Keramas will be quite a bit smaller with the more westerly swell direction). The swell and surf will continue to fade through the weekend, with fun size leftovers on Sunday, and even smaller waves by Monday.

Going further out, we have a few swells on the horizon that will affect the completion for the middle to second half of next week. The first swell event will actually be a mix of mid and longer period SSW swells (195-220) which, if the storms behave as forecast in the next few days, will build in Tuesday afternoon/evening and be strongest on Wednesday. This will be a medium size swell, if the storms behave as forecast, with head high to a couple feet overhead surf at Canggu. Stya tuned, we’ll have more refined details on this in our next couple updates as we see the storms evolve.

Going further out, forecast charts and models indicate a larger and potentially solid SSW swell (200-220) will move in and be strongest on Thursday and Friday the 11th-12th if the storm behaves as forecast in the next 3-4 days. After reviewing this storm on the most up to date wind forecast charts, it appears that the long range projections on our LOLA swell model are pretty ‘hot’ and will likely come down over the next couple days. This swell still looks fairly substantial, however, and would produce very solidly overhead waves at Canguu with Keramas a few notches below that. At this point it appears that we’ll see fading and progressively smaller surf from the 13th through the end of the waiting period, although that is obviously a long way out and subject to change. Stay tuned for further details in the next few days.

Light to moderate SE’erly trades prevail over the weekend and into the early part of next week. The pressure gradient will weaken near Bali Tue-Thur of next week and lighter and more variable wind will prevail. Stay tuned.

Next Update: Thursday afternoon, October 4th (local time)

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